Stat of the Week #3: Looking at the Biggest NFL Upsets Since 2000

NFL: Minnesota Vikings at Buffalo Bills
Photo Via: USA Today
The NFL is notorious for being a parity-filled league primarily due to its’ strict salary cap rules and relatively low salaries for top tier players (compared to other leagues). This parity is shown in betting lines, as game spreads seldomly exceed 20.0, while this is a quite common occurrence in college football.

I used Sports Reference to compile the biggest NFL upsets since 2000 according to the spread. This data is up to Week 3 of the 2018 NFL Season.
*= Theres more than 50 games here just because there were several games with a 10.5 point spread

Top 50* Upsets Since 2000:
1. Bills 27 @ Vikings 6 2018 Week 3 Line: 16.5 +/-: 37.5
2. Raiders 27 @ Steelers 24 2009 Week 13 Line: 15.0
+/-: 18.0
3T. Cardinals 21 @ Eagles 20 2001 Week 4 Line: 14.5 +/-: 15.5
3T. Vikings 24 @ Eagles 14 2010 Week 16 Line: 14.5 +/-: 24.5
5T. Patriots 20 vs. Rams 17 2001 Super Bowl Line: 14.0 +/-: 17.0
5T. Texans 24 @ Steelers 6 2002 Week 14 Line: 14.0 +/-: 32.0
5T. Texans 21 @ Dolphins 20 2003 Week 1 Line: 14.0 +/-: 15.0
5T. Lions 39 @ Cowboys 31 2006 Week 17 Line: 14.0 +/-: 22.0
5T. Raiders 20 @ Broncos 19 2009 Week 15 Line: 14.0 +/-: 15.0
5T. Buccaneers 20 @ Saints 17 2009 Week 16 Line: 14.0 +/-: 17.0
5T. Raiders 13 vs. Eagles 9 2009 Week 6 Line: 14.0 +/-: 18.0
5T. Rams 31 vs. Saints 21 2011 Week 8 Line: 14.0 +/-: 24.0
5T. Dolphins 20 @ Falcons 17 2017 Week 6 Line: 14.0 +/-: 17.0
14T. Saints 31 @ Rams 24 2000 Week 13 Line: 13.5 +/-: 20.5
14T. Panthers 27 @ Rams 24 2000 Week 10 Line: 13.5 +/-: 16.5
14T. Dolphins 23 @ Chargers 21 2005 Week 14 Line: 13.5 +/-: 15.5
14T. Dolphins 31 @ Bears 13 2006 Week 9 Line: 13.5 +/-: 31.5
14T. Rams 19 @ Redskins 17 2008 Week 6 Line: 13.5 +/-: 15.5
14T. Cardinals 20 @ Patriots 18 2012 Week 2 Line: 13.5 +/-: 15.5
14T. Giants 23 @ Broncos 10 2017 Week 6 Line: 13.5 +/-: 26.5
21T. Cardinals 34 @ Raiders 31 2001 Week 12 Line: 13.0 +/-: 16.0
21T. Bills 37 @ Bengals 27 2005 Week 16 Line: 13.0 +/-: 23.0
21T. Titans 31 @ Eagles 13 2006 Week 11 Line: 13.0 +/-: 31.0
21T. Raiders 28 @ Chargers 13 2010 Week 13 Line: 13.0 +/-: 28.0
21T. Cardinals 21 @ Eagles 17 2011 Week 10 Line: 13.0 +/-: 17.0
26T. Rams 20 @ Cowboys 10 2006 Week 17 Line: 12.5 +/-: 22.5
26T. Giants 17 vs. Patriots 14 2007 Super Bowl Line: 12.5 +/-: 15.5
26T. Dolphins 38 @ Patriots 13 2008 Week 3 Line: 12.5 +/-: 37.5
26T. Browns 30 @ Saints 17 2010 Week 7 Line: 12.5 +/-: 25.5
26T. Cowboys 33 @ Giants 20 2010 Week 10 Line: 12.5 +/-: 25.5
31T. Saints 34 @ Rams 31 2001 Week 7 Line: 12.0 +/-: 15.0
31T. Giants 26 @ Rams 21 2002 Week 2 Line: 12.0 +/-: 17.0
31T. Cowboys 13 @ Rams 10 2002 Week 4 Line: 12.0 +/-: 15.0
31T. Lions 30 vs. Rams 10 2003 Week 17 Line: 12.0 +/-: 32.0
31T. Titans 25 @ Redskins 22 2006 Week 6 Line: 12.0 +/-: 15.0
31T. Chiefs 30 @ Chargers 16 2007 Week 4 Line: 12.0 +/-: 26.0
31T. Rams 23 @ Seahawks 17 2015 Week 16 Line: 12.0 +/-: 18.0
38T. Patriots 44 vs. Colts 13 2001 Week 3 Line: 11.5 +/-: 42.5
38T. Falcons 27 @ Giants 7 2003 Week 10 Line: 11.5 +/-: 31.5
38T. Raiders 25 @ Broncos 24 2004 Week 12 Line: 11.5 +/-: 12.5
38T. 49ers 15 vs. Buccaneers 10 2005 Week 8 Line: 11.5 +/-: 16.5
38T. Chiefs 27 vs. Steelers 24 2009 Week 11 Line: 11.5 +/-: 14.5
38T. Chiefs 19 vs. Packers 14 2011 Week 15 Line: 11.5 +/-: 16.5
38T. Jaguars 29 @ Titans 27 2013 Week 10 Line: 11.5 +/-: 13.5
45T. Steelers 24 @ Jaguars 13 2000 Week 5 Line: 11.0 +/-: 22.0
45T. Texans 21 @ Jaguars 19 2002 Week 8 Line: 11.0 +/-: 13.0
45T. Chargers 28 @ Colts 24 2007 Divisional Round Line: 11.0 +/-: 15.0
48T. Bengals 17 vs. Jaguars 14 2000 Week 16 Line: 10.5 +/-: 13.5
48T. Cowboys 27 @ Redskins 21 2000 Week 3 Line: 10.5 +/-: 16.5
48T. Patriots 38 @ Colts 17 2000 Week 6 Line: 10.5 +/-: 31.5
48T. Bears 19 @ Broncos 10 2003 Week 12 Line: 10.5 +/-: 19.5
48T. Jets 17 @ Patriots 14 2006 Week 10 Line: 10.5 +/-: 13.5
48T. Texans 13 @ Jaguars 10 2006 Week 10 Line: 10.5 +/-: 13.5
48T. 49ers 37 @ Cardinals 31 2007 Week 10 Line: 10.5 +/-: 16.5
48T. Rams 37 @ Saints 29 2007 Week 10 Line: 10.5 +/-: 18.5
48T. Raiders 31 @ Buccaneers 24 2008 Week 17 Line: 10.5 +/-: 17.5
48T. Jaguars 12 vs. Ravens 7 2011 Week 7 Line: 10.5 +/-: 15.5
48T. Raiders 28 @ Texans 23 2013 Week 11 Line: 10.5 +/-: 15.5
48T. Jets 30 @ Falcons 28 2013 Week 5 Line: 10.5 +/-: 12.5
48T. Rams 13 @ 49ers 10 2014 Week 9 Line: 10.5 +/-: 13.5
48T. Lions 18 @ Packers 16 2015 Week 10 Line: 10.5 +/-: 12.5
48T. Texans 10 @ Bengals 6 2015 Week 10 Line: 10.5 +/-: 14.5
48T. Dolphins 27 vs. Patriots 20 2017 Week 14 Line: 10.5 +/-: 17.5

Takeaways:
-The Greatest Show on Turf or The Most Upset Prone team on Turf?: The Rams from 2000-2003 had an insane total of 7 different games in which they were a 10.5+ Point Favorite and lost. The most notable of which was their loss as a 14 point favorite in the 2001 Super Bowl against the Tom Brady led Patriots.
-Rams and Raiders were the king of being underdogs: Despite my previous point the Rams had the 2nd most upset wins since 2000 of more than a 10.5 point spread. They had six such instances. The top team were the Raiders with seven . upsets.
=The Patriots started out as underdogs: The Patriots have dominated the NFL since the turn of the century with 5 super bowl wins. However they had 3 different big upsets in their 2001 year, two of which were massive blowout wins vs. The Colts. Their week 3 31 point win was the biggest margin of any game on the list.

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