2018-2019 NBA Regular Season PCR, EWC, and Aggregate Wins Report

Uncategorized 5 Minutes

blazers-warriors-2019-hero

Photo Via: rosequarter.com 

With the start of the second round of the NBA Playoffs, I will be showing you my original advanced stats report of the 2018-2019 regular season. Below is a copy of what I wrote for the all star break article, explaining my two original metrics: Pro Con Rating and Estimated Wins Contributed.

In addition, I am including a new metric called Aggregate Wins Contributed, which is the average of the mean and median of different metrics that evaluate the number of wins an NBA Player contributes.

The metrics I aggregate are:

  1. Estimated Wins Contributed (My Original Metric)
  2. Win Shares
  3. Wins Over Replacement (VORP * 2.7)
  4. Hollinger’s Estimated Wins Added
  5. ESPN’s Real Plus Minus Wins
  6. Wins Produced

If you follow my site, you are most likely familiar with my two original NBA Metrics. Pro-Con Rating (PCR) and Estimated Wins Contributed (EWC). Both of these metrics are box score evaluations, and assign linear weightings to a variety of different box score stats.

I have published previous articles regarding the exact methodology and rationale behind the different weights. Therefore I will simply just go over the formulas here without much explanation, which you can find in previous posts. There is one note I would like to add before laying out the formulas and showing you the leaderboards from this season. EWC possesses some inherent adjustments for pace in its formula. This is due to the fact that it divides a player’s total PCR by their team’s total PCR. Therefore the formula does not penalize a player who has lower stats just because his team does not play a type of basketball that increases the number of possessions.

PCR Primer from 2017-2018 Regular Season

EWC Primer from 2017-2018 Season

PCR Formula: Pro Con Rating, a metric that evaluates how well players are playing statistically on a per game basis. Assigning positive weights to pros (Good Box score stats) and negative weights to cons (Bad box score stats). 
((Pts)+(Reb)+(Ast x 1.4)+(Blks x 1.2)+(Steals x 1.1))-((TOs)+(Field Goals Missed)+(Free Throws Missed x .5)+(Fouls))/Games Played

Total PCR: Total Pro Con Rating, just the total PCR not on a per game basis. 

PCR * Games Played

PCR/36: Pro Con Rating Per 36 Minutes, a way to evaluate how efficient players are given the pro-con rating metric. 

((Total PCR)/(Minutes Played))*36

EWC Formula:  Estimated Wins Contributed based on box score statistics. 

(Player’s Total PCR/Team PCR)*Wins

EWC/82 Formula: Estimated Wins Contributed Per 82 Games, how many wins the player would have if they played 82 games based on their current rate and statistics. 

(EWC/Games Played)*82

EWC/48 Formula: Estimated Wins Contributed Per 48 Minutes, an efficiency metric evaluating how many wins per 48 minutes a specific player is estimated to contribute. 

(EWC/Minutes Played)*48

Updated General Guidelines for Ratings:

PCR>32: MVP Candidate

PCR>30: Top Tier Player in the League

PCR>27: 1st Team/2nd Team All NBA Talent

PCR>25: For Sure All Star Possible Third Team All NBA

PCR>22: Borderline All Star

PCR>20: Good But Not a Great Player

PCR>17: Good Solidified Starter

PCR>13: Starter and Good Team Contributor

PCR>10: Valuable Role Player

PCR>7.5: Average Player

PCR<5.0: Below Average

PCR Top 25: 

*Qualifier = Total PCR > 1000

  1. Giannis Antetokounmpo MIL: 36.11
  2. Anthony Davis NOP: 33.99
  3. James Harden HOU: 33.98
  4. LeBron James LAL: 33.21
  5. Joel Embid PHI: 31.83
  6. Russell Westbrook OKC: 31.30
  7. Nikola Jokic DEN: 29.60
  8. Kevin Durant GSW: 28.94
  9. Karl-Anthony Towns MIN: 28.81
  10. Nikola Vucevic ORL: 28.22
  11. Kawhi Leonard TOR: 27.52
  12. Paul George OKC: 27.15
  13. Rudy Gobert UTA: 26.61
  14. Ben Simmons PHI: 26.53
  15. Damian Lillard POR: 26.41
  16. Stephen Curry GSW: 26.21
  17. Kyrie Irving BOS: 26.02
  18. Andre Drummond DET: 25.97
  19. Clint Capela HOU: 25.37
  20. Jrue Holiday NOP: 24.81
  21. Bradley Beal WAS: 24.41
  22. Blake Griffin DET: 24.23
  23. Kemba Walker CHA: 23.95
  24. LaMarcus Aldridge SAS: 23.81
  25. DeMar DeRozan SAS: 23.43

Minute Adjusted PCR (PCR/36) Top 25: 

*Qualifier = Total PCR > 1000

  1. Giannis Antetokounmpo MIL: 39.69
  2. Anthony Davis NOP: 37.04
  3. Nikola Jokic DEN: 34.05
  4. Joel Embid PHI: 34.05
  5. LeBron James LAL: 33.94
  6. James Harden HOU: 33.29
  7. Nikola Vucevic ORL: 32.38
  8. Karl-Anthony Towns MIN: 31.34
  9. Russell Westbrook OKC: 31.28
  10. Rudy Gobert UTA: 30.11
  11. Kevin Durant GSW: 30.08
  12. Kawhi Leonard TOR: 29.14
  13. Hassan Whiteside MIA: 28.99
  14. Kyrie Irving BOS: 28.34
  15. Jusuf Nurkic POR: 28.00
  16. Ben Simmons PHI: 27.95
  17. Stephen Curry GSW: 27.93
  18. Andre Drummond DET: 27.90
  19. Domantas Sabonis IND: 27.25
  20. Clint Capela HOU: 27.21
  21. Damian Lillard POR: 26.80
  22. Paul George OKC: 26.49
  23. DeAndre Jordan NYK: 26.26
  24. Enes Kanter POR: 26.10
  25. Luka Doncic DAL: 26.95

Total PCR Top 25: 

  1. James Harden HOU: 2650.8
  2. Giannis Antetokounmpo MIL: 2599.8
  3. Nikola Jokic DEN: 2368.3
  4. Russell Westbrook OKC: 2284.9
  5. Nikola Vucevic ORL: 2257.7
  6. Kevin Durant GSW: 2257.4
  7. Karl-Anthony Towns MIN: 2218.3
  8. Rudy Gobert UTA: 2155.4
  9. Damian Lillard POR: 2122.5
  10. Ben Simmons PHI: 2095.9
  11. Paul George OKC: 2090.5
  12. Andre Drummond DET: 2051.5
  13. Joel Embid PHI: 2037.1
  14. Bradley Beal WAS: 2001.9
  15. Kemba Walker CHO: 1963.6
  16. LaMarcus Aldridge SAS: 1928.8
  17. Anthony Davis NOP: 1903.5
  18. LeBron James LAL: 1826.4
  19. Blake Griffin DET: 1817.6
  20. Stephen Curry GSW: 1808.6
  21. DeMar DeRozan SAS: 1804.3
  22. Kyrie Irving BOS: 1743.2
  23. Tobias Harris PHI: 1711.6
  24. Clint Capela HOU: 1699.7
  25. D’Angelo Russell BRK: 1674.7

Estimated Wins Contributed Top 25: 

  1. James Harden HOU: 14.90
  2. Giannis Antetokounmpo MIL: 14.01
  3. Nikola Jokic DEN: 12.47
  4. Kevin Durant GSW: 11.40
  5. Russell Westbrook OKC: 11.33
  6. Damian Lillard POR: 11.05
  7. Rudy Gobert UTA: 10.52
  8. Paul George OKC: 10.37
  9. Ben Simmons PHI: 10.10
  10. Joel Embid PHI: 9.82
  11. Nikola Vucevic ORL: 9.66
  12. Clint Capela HOU: 9.55
  13. Andre Drummond DET: 9.52
  14. Kawhi Leonard TOR: 9.22
  15. Stephen Curry GSW: 9.13
  16. LaMarcus Aldridge SAS: 9.04
  17. Pascal Siakam TOR: 8.60
  18. DeMar DeRozan SAS: 8.46
  19. Blake Griffin DET: 8.44
  20. Tobias Harris PHI: 8.30
  21. Kyrie Irving BOS: 8.27
  22. Eric Bledsoe MIL: 8.17
  23. Karl-Anthony Towns MIN: 8.03
  24. Jusuf Nurkic POR: 8.03
  25. Kemba Walker CHO: 7.92

EWC/82 Top 25: 

*Qualifier= Total PCR > 1000

  1. Giannis Antetokounmpo MIL: 15.95
  2. James Harden HOU: 15.66
  3. Nikola Jokic DEN: 12.78
  4. Russell Westbrook OKC: 12.73
  5. Kawhi Leonard TOR: 12.60
  6. Joel Embid PHI: 12.58
  7. Kevin Durant GSW: 11.98
  8. Clint Capela HOU: 11.69
  9. Damian Lillard POR: 11.32
  10. Paul George OKC: 11.04
  11. Stephen Curry GSW: 10.85
  12. Rudy Gobert UTA: 10.65
  13. Ben Simmons PHI: 10.48
  14. LeBron James LAL: 10.16
  15. Kyrie Irving BOS: 10.12
  16. Chris Paul HOU: 9.93
  17. Nikola Vucevic ORL: 9.90
  18. Andre Drummond DET: 9.88
  19. Kyle Lowry TOR: 9.62
  20. Blake Griffin DET: 9.22
  21. LaMarcus Aldridge SAS: 9.15
  22. Jusuf Nurkic POR: 9.14
  23. DeMar DeRozan SAS: 9.01
  24. Pascal Siakam TOR: 8.81
  25. Anthony Davis NOP: 8.77

Minute Adjusted EWC (EWC/48) Top 25: 

*Qualifier= Total PCR > 1000

  1. Giannis Antetokounmpo MIL: .285
  2. James Harden HOU: .249
  3. Nikola Jokic DEN: .239
  4. Joel Embid PHI: .219
  5. Kawhi Leonard TOR: .217
  6. Russel Westbrook OKC: .207
  7. Clint Capela HOU: .204
  8. Kevin Durant GSW: .202
  9. Rudy Gobert UTA: .196
  10. Jusuf Nurkic POR: .195
  11. Stephen Curry GSW: .188
  12. Damian Lillard POR: .187
  13. Nikola Vucevic ORL: .185
  14. Chris Paul HOU: .182
  15. Ben Simmons PHI: .180
  16. Kyrie Irving BOS: .179
  17. Paul George OKC: .175
  18. Domantas Sabonis IND: .175
  19. Andre Drummond DET: .173
  20. Eric Bledsoe MIL: .173
  21. LeBron James LAL: .169
  22. Serge Ibaka TOR: .166
  23. Lou Williams LAC: .166
  24. Montrezl Harrell LAC: .166
  25. Kyle Lowry TOR: .165

Aggregate Wins Contributed:

  1. James Harden HOU: 19.01 Max: 28.00 Min: 14.90
  2. Giannis Antetokounmpo MIL: 17.42 Max: 22.80 Min: 14.01
  3. Rudy Gobert UTA: 15.48 Max: 22.90 Min: 10.52
  4. Nikola Jokic DEN: 15.23 Max: 19.71 Min: 11.80
  5. Paul George OKC: 14.64 Max: 19.73 Min: 10.37
  6. Damian Lillard POR: 14.18 Max: 18.00 Min: 11.05
  7. Nikola Vucevic ORL: 13.42 Max: 18.60 Min: 9.66
  8. Karl-Anthony Towns MIN: 12.92 Max: 20.00 Min: 8.03
  9. Kevin Durant GSW: 12.90 Max: 18.50 Min: 11.40
  10. Stephen Curry GSW: 12.67 Max: 15.60 Min: 9.13
  11. Anthony Davis NOP: 11.90 Max: 17.30 Min: 5.99
  12. Russell Westbrook OKC: 11.83 Max: 15.12 Min: 6.80
  13. Kyrie Irving BOS: 11.12 Max: 14.70 Min: 8.27
  14. Ben Simmons PHI: 10.99 Max: 18.20 Min: 8.20
  15. Andre Drummond DET: 10.84 Max: 17.30 Min: 8.79
  16. Clint Capela HOU: 10.62 Max: 16.60 Min: 7.02
  17. LeBron James LAL: 10.42 Max: 14.60 Min: 6.81
  18. Joel Embid PHI: 10.22 Max: 16.70 Min: 8.70
  19. Kawhi Leonard TOR: 10.21 Max: 15.60 Min: 8.21
  20. Kemba Walker CHA: 9.84 Max: 15.30 Min: 7.40
  21. Bradley Beal WAS: 9.58 Max: 15.60 Min: 6.39
  22. Steven Adams OKC: 9.28 Max: 13.50 Min: 7.55
  23. Eric Bledsoe MIL: 9.28 Max: 12.60 Min: 8.17
  24. Jusuf Nurkic POR: 9.27 Max: 12.60 Min: 7.80
  25. Pascal Siakam TOR: 9.25 Max: 11.91 Min: 7.10

Lastly, here is the spreadsheet with every player’s PCR and EWC. Additionally, there is a leaderboard of 48 players and their aggregate wins contributed. These 48 players were chosen because they were all ranked in the Top 25 in at least one of the 6 Wins Metrics. The Players of interest sheet included players with good stats and other players I thought were interesting.

 

Unknown's avatar

Published by Tyler Perez

Published

Leave a comment