Last Year I discussed my TIMEMAT Rating System, which was based in matrix and linear algebra. In this rating system, I decided to focus on the amount of time it took football teams to put a game away rather than more contemporary predictive measures such as point differential.

I will not go into detail regarding the system since I have already in the aforementioned article, however, I will give a quick rundown. The rating system revolves around the moment in a game in which the victorious team went up by more than one possession and kept the score margin at two possessions or more for the rest of the game. The idea may be better illustrated with an example:

For example in the Packers 31-13 win over the Giants this past week, Green Bay received a 17.18 rating, because they put the game away with 14 minutes left in the game. As the 14 minute mark in the 4th quarter was the moment in which the opposing team (the Giants) failed to have a single possession in which they were within one possession of the Packers for the remainder of the game. The extra 3.18 is due to a home-field adjustment in which away teams are given an extra 3.18 while home teams are subtracted 3.18. This number is based on a linear regression equation relating point differential to my Time Differential, and commonly accepted standards of home-field advantage in the NFL: y=1.31x+0.15

If it is not clear yet what the metric gets after, the metric just calculates the amount of time left in the game when the victorious team put the game away for good and did not let the opposing team get back into the game. That is the goal of my metric.

There are some other facets to keep in mind, any game that is put away within the last 5 minutes of a game is assigned a Time Margin of 5.0. This goes for games that finish in a one-possession game as well.

That concludes the basic run-down of the backbone of my Time Margin Rating which is based on my TIMEMAT rating.

Time Margin Rating System:

My Time Margin Rating System is basically a synthesis of the common adjusted margin of victory rating systems such as SRS, and my TIMEMAT System. Unlike other systems I have done, this one is primarily a predictive measure. The process for calculating these ratings are relatively simple.

The formula is as follows:

Team A’s Time Margin: (1/2 *(Team A Mean Raw Time Margin+Team A Median Raw Time Margin)) + (1.25*(1/2* (Median Opponent Time Margin+Mean Opponent Time Margin)

Therefore my metric calculates the team’s raw time margin without accounting for strength of schedule then accounts for the strength of schedule accordingly.  I use a combination of the two most common measurements of central tendency (Mean and Median) to adjust for outliers but also to account for the fact that a high proportion of NFL Games end within one score.

The coefficient of 1.25 for the strength of schedule comes from the fact that without the coefficient:

STDEV of Team’s Time Margin: 7.36

STDEV of Team’s Time Margin SOS: 1.48

The lack of deviation causes the metric to discount the strength of schedule and make it nearly a nonfactor in my rating system. However, i multiply it by 1.25 which changed the ratio of Standard Deviations. In turn, it made it so that the approximate importance of the Team’s time margin was ~ 80%, while SOS was ~20%. This is more in turn with what I personally would stress importance on. In a league as full of parity as the NFL it makes sense that 80% of what matters is how good you look while 20% of what matters is who you do it against. This distribution of importance would, of course, be different in college football where the talent gap is much wider, and strength of schedule needs even more stressed importance.

Usually I discuss the pros and cons of my rating system, however, the same pros and cons for my TIMEMAT System apply here.

Calculating Spreads:

You can use my metric to calculate point spreads as well. I will list the point spreads for all week 14 games at the end of an article, but to exemplify how one can do it I will use the Dolphins @ Jets game this Sunday.

The Dolphins currently have a league-worst -15.02 in my metric while the Jets have the second-worst at -11.75. The Jets are at home for this game, therefore, they should have an inherent 3.18-time margin advance. So the calculations are as follows:

Differential= (-11.75+3.18)-(-15.02)=6.45

In Time Margin lingo this means the Jets should put the Dolphins Game away with 6.45 minutes left. If you wanted to convert this to a point spread, you simply plug it into the aforementioned Least Squares Equation* and do some algebra to find X:

6.45=1.31x+0.15

6.30=1.31X

6.3/1.31= 4.8

Therefore, the Jets are favored by 4.8 points against the Dolphins in my Metric.

*This equation is preliminary and is going to be adjusted for in the future to be more accurate  (Article will be updated at that time to reflect that)

Week 14 Ratings:

1. New England Patriots (10-2): 14.09
2. Baltimore Ravens (10-2): 13.52
3. San Francisco 49ers (10-2): 12.08
4. Kansas City Chiefs (8-4): 7.40
5. Minnesota Vikings (8-4): 7.39
6. Seattle Seahawks (10-2): 6.30
7. Los Angeles Rams (7-5): 5.12
8. New Orleans Saints (10-2): 4.70
9. Green Bay Packers (9-3): 3.20
10. Cleveland Browns (5-7): 2.27
11. Houston Texans (8-4): 2.05
12. Dallas Cowboys (6-6): 1.60
13. Pittsburgh Steelers (7-5): 1.50
14. Buffalo Bills (9-3): 0.74
15. Philadelphia Eagles (5-7): 0.60
16. Chicago Bears (6-6): 0.09
17. San Diego Chargers (4-8): -0.79
18. Indianapolis Colts (6-6): -.95
19. Tennessee Titans (7-5): -1.02
20. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (5-7): -1.23
21. Detroit Lions (3-8-1): -1.85
22. Carolina Panthers (5-7): -2.25
23. Denver Broncos (4-8): -2.48
24. Arizona Cardinals (3-8-1): -3.61
25. New York Giants (2-10): -4.12
26. Oakland Raiders (6-6): -5.41
27. Atlanta Falcons (3-9): -5.54
28. Jacksonville Jaguars (4-8): -6.69
29. Cincinnati Bengals (1-11): -6.75
30. Washington Redskins (3-9): -9.89
31. New York Jets (4-8): -11.75
32. Miami Dolphins (3-9): -15.02

Lines for Week 14 Games:

Cowboys @ Bears: Bears -1.2

Dolphins @ Jets: Jets -4.8

Panthers @ Falcons: Panthers -.2 (Pick Em)

Ravens @ Bills: Ravens -7.2

Bengals @ Browns: Browns -9.2

Redskins @ Packers: Packers -12.3

Lions @ Vikings: Vikings -9.4

49ers @ Saints: 49ers -3.1

Colts @ Buccaneers: Buccaneers -2.1

Broncos @ Texans: Texans -5.8

Chargers @ Jaguars: Chargers -2.0

Titans @ Raiders: Titans -.8

Chiefs @ Patriots: Patriots -7.4

Steelers @ Cardinals: Steelers -1.4

Seahawks @ Rams: Rams -1.4

 

Here is a spreadsheet with the ratings as well as strength of schedule for each NFL Team: